Current location:business >>
Trend of 'rise of the East and decline of the West' inevitable: economist
business3288People have gathered around
Introduction(ECNS)—The trend of China's economic growth remains unchanged, and the so-called China decline theor ...
(ECNS)—The trend of China's economic growth remains unchanged, and the so-called China decline theory will not resist the trend of "the rise of the East and the decline of the West", an economist said in an article on Sunday.
Several think tanks and media agencies cited China's shrinking GDP measured in dollars in 2023 in their latest reports to substantiate their claims that China's economic prospect is bleak.
"Such analyses lack comprehensiveness, historical perspective, and foresight," argued Guangming Daily columnist Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges in Beijing.
Short-term factors cannot determine long-run prospects
Factors including the rise in the U.S. price level and the appreciation of the U.S. exchange rate contributed to an increase in the share of the United States in the world economy, Zhang said. But this will not last long, he added.
Rising prices in the U.S., which led to faster nominal GDP growth, coupled with the appreciation of the U.S. dollar exchange rate, resulted in a slower or even negative nominal growth rate in another country when its GDP is translated into U.S. dollars, according to Zhang.
China's GDP in 2023 shrank in U.S. dollars partly due to a weakening Chinese yuan, or RMB, against the USD, whereas the number measured in RMB expanded 5.2 percent year-on-year after adjusting for inflation, according to the National Statistics Bureau, which indicates that the nation's economy maintained steady growth in the year, Zhang said.
From 2021 to 2023, there was serious inflation in the United States, with U.S. consumer prices rising by 4.7 percent, 8 percent, and 4.1 percent in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively, and the nominal GDP subsequently rising.
However, data showed that the share of the United States in the world economy has declined twice in history after a significant rebound.
The first period of U.S. economic recovery occurred from 1981 to 1985. High-interest-rate policy taken by the Federal Reserve (Fed) led to two economic recessions and significant appreciation of the U.S. dollar exchange rate. As a result, the share of U.S. GDP in the world increased from 25.4 percent in 1980 to 34.6 percent in 1985, rising by 9.2 percentage points over the five-year period.
However, this trend saw a rapid decline, from 34.6 percent in 1985 to 24.5 percent in 1995, a drop of 10.1 percentage points.
A similar situation occurred between 1996 and 2001, during which the share of U.S. GDP in the world's total rose from 24.5 percent in 1995 to 31.3 percent in 2001. But after 2003, the figure dropped from 31.3 percent in 2002 to 21.1 percent in 2011, a decrease of 10.2 percentage points.
Developed economies on a downhill slope
Moreover, Zhang pointed out that anemic growth is seen in most advanced economies and the U.S. alone cannot avert the downturn.
Take the G7 as an example, while the U.S. grew by 1.3 percentage points as a part of the global economy in 2022, G7 countries' combined GDP as a share of the world's GDP still dropped by 0.6 percent that year.
Not to mention that the U.S. GDP as a share of the global GDP could drop in 2024 as per predictions by international think tanks.
According to the Conference Board, a U.S. research agency that has long been tracking the periodic changes in the American economy, the U.S. economy is likely to enter stagnation or even negative growth in the third quarter of 2024.
The Fed and International Monetary Fund (IMF) also foresee that the real GDP growth for Uncle Sam in 2024 could decrease to around 2 percent.
And the likelihood of lower interest rates and the dollar depreciation adds more uncertainty to the economic prospects of the world's largest economy.
Chinese economy remains resilient and dynamic
In the meantime, China's favorable policies and strong growth momentum could facilitate the national economy, Zhang wrote.
Multiple research institutions released brisk predictions of China's economic development in 2024, setting the growth figure at around 5 percent or even 6 percent if inflation is considered.
According to the World Economic Outlook report released by the IMF last October, in the years from 2024 to 2028, the U.S. GDP as a share of the world's economy will decline, whereas that of China will be back on track for a steady rise.
Tags:
Reprint:Friends are welcome to share on the Internet, but please indicate the source of the article when reprinting it.“International Index news portal”。http://liberia.spaceforanything.com/content-58d999890.html
Related articles
Seven sneaky clauses in estate agent contracts that can cost you dear
businessWhen it comes to picking an estate agent, for most people their mind is made up long before the cont ...
【business】
Read moreTaylor Swift fans believe they have decoded the singer's 'bronze spray
businessTaylor Swift fans believe they have uncovered the 'bronze spray-tanned statue' line referenced in he ...
【business】
Read moreHow Columbia's protest of the Israel
businessNEW YORK (AP) — Months before they pitched their tents on Columbia University’s main lawn, inspiring ...
【business】
Read more
Popular articles
- Eleanor Tomlinson puts on a leggy display in sparkly black minidress as she joins co
- Native American tribes want US appeals court to weigh in on $10B SunZia energy transmission project
- Keleigh Teller shows off her figure in a fire
- QB Jaden Rashada transfers to Georgia after leaving Arizona State
- Jon Wysocki dead at 53: Staind drummer passes away
- Orpheus Pledger: Home and Away star is arrested after sparking a three
Latest articles
Investigators return to Long Island home of Gilgo Beach serial killing suspect
Athletic director used AI to frame principal with racist remarks in fake audio clip, police say
Jeremy Clarkson's Diddly Squat goes online! Ex
Jeremy Clarkson's Diddly Squat goes online! Ex
Who is Jacob Zuma, the former South African president disqualified from next week's election?
Amendments to Missouri Constitution are on the line amid GOP infighting
LINKS
- Lok Sabha elections 2024: Why Modi and BJP face strong resistance in south India
- Vladimir Putin is sworn in for his fifth term as president at glittering ceremony in front of hand
- Wisconsin wedding barns sue over state's new liquor law requiring licensing
- North Macedonia elections: What is at stake? Who are contesting? All you need to know
- Plane passenger reveals his hilarious take on what your seat selection means about your journey
- Poland's Tusk calls secret services meeting after defection of judge to Belarus
- Irina Shayk shines in a Swarovski gown at the 2024 Met Gala
- PGA Tour goes to Quail Hollow ahead of PGA Championship. Nelly Korda goes for 6 in a row
- US service member shot and killed by Florida police identified by the Air Force
- Thiago Silva to return to Brazilian club Fluminense after leaving Chelsea at the end of the season